'Pause Giant AI Experiments'
An open letter signed by Musk, Wozniak, Bengio and 30,000 others calls for a six-month halt to training systems beyond GPT-4; nobody pauses, and everyone talks about it.
what had to happen · 52 events back to 1943
Every event this one built on, transitively, in order. Direct influences are marked.
00 · One neuron · 1
I · Foundations · 11
- 1948A mathematical theory of communication
- 1949Cells that fire together wire together
- 1950Programming a computer for playing chess
- 1950Computing machinery and intelligence
- 1958The perceptron learns
- 1959Samuel's checkers program coins 'machine learning'
- 1960ADALINE and the least-mean-squares rule
- 1965Moore's law
- 1966ELIZA
- 1969Perceptrons
- 1970Reverse-mode automatic differentiation
W1 · The first winter · 2
II · Connection · 3
W2 · The second winter · 6
III · Statistics and data · 9
IV · Deep learning · 9
V · Transformers · 8
VI · Everyone · 3
- 2022InstructGPT
- 2022ChatGPT
- 2023GPT-4direct
Eight days after GPT-4, the Future of Life Institute published a letter asking all laboratories to pause, for at least six months, the training of any system more powerful than it. "Should we develop nonhuman minds that might eventually outnumber, outsmart, obsolete and replace us?" it asked, and proposed that the pause be used to build shared safety protocols audited by outside experts. Yoshua Bengio, Stuart Russell, Elon Musk, Steve Wozniak and the historian Yuval Noah Harari signed; by the summer the count passed 33,000.
No laboratory paused, and several signatories said they had not expected any to. Musk announced his own laboratory, xAI, in July. The letter's real effect was on the conversation: it put the words "existential risk" into every newsroom, it was followed in May by a one-sentence statement from the Center for AI Safety, signed by the heads of OpenAI, DeepMind and Anthropic, that the risk of extinction from AI should be a global priority, and it framed the hearings, summits and executive orders of the rest of the year.
Critics, including the authors of the stochastic-parrots paper, argued that the letter's science-fiction framing distracted from harms already happening. That argument, between long-term and present risk, organised the safety debate for the next two years.
what it led to · 7 events downstream, through 2026
Built on it directly:
And, through them, by era: