Q-learning
Chris Watkins's thesis gives an algorithm that learns the value of every action in every state from experience alone, with a proof that it converges to the best policy.
what had to happen · 4 events back to 1943
Every event this one built on, transitively, in order. Direct influences are marked.
I · Foundations · 3
W2 · The second winter · 1
- 1988Temporal-difference learningdirect
Temporal-difference learning told you how good a situation was. Chris Watkins's 1989 Cambridge thesis told you what to do about it. Q-learning keeps a table of values, one for each state and each action available in it, and updates each entry towards the reward received plus the best value available from the next state. The agent can behave however it likes while learning, exploring, making mistakes, and the table still converges to the values of the optimal policy. Watkins and Peter Dayan published the convergence proof in 1992.
The algorithm is simple enough to write on an index card and general enough to apply to anything that can be described as states, actions and rewards. Through the 1990s it was used on small problems, elevators, network routing, games with a few thousand states, because the table grew with the world.
Replacing the table with a neural network was the obvious extension and the unstable one, and it took until 2013 for DeepMind to make it work. Their deep Q-network learned to play Atari games from pixels using Watkins's update rule with a convolutional network as the table, and the paper that described it was the founding document of deep reinforcement learning.
what it led to · 45 events downstream, through 2026
Built on it directly:
- 2010DeepMind is foundedIII
- 2013Deep Q-networks play AtariIV
And, through them, by era:
IV · Deep learning · 3
V · Transformers · 7
VI · Everyone · 19
- 2022InstructGPT
- 2022ChatGPT
- 2023Bing's chatbot and 'Sydney'
- 2023Claude
- 2023GPT-4
- 2023'Pause Giant AI Experiments'
- 2023Hinton leaves Google to warn about AI
- 2023The US executive order on AI
- 2023The Bletchley Declaration
- 2023OpenAI fires and rehires its chief executive
- 2023Gemini
- 2024Claude 3 catches GPT-4
- 2024AlphaFold 3
- 2024GPT-4o talks
- 2024The EU AI Act enters into force
- 2024o1 and reasoning models
- 2024The Nobel Prizes go to neural networks
- 2024Claude learns to use a computer
- 2024The Model Context Protocol
VII · Agents · 14
- 2025DeepSeek-R1
- 2025Claude 4 and Claude Code
- 2025Nvidia is worth four trillion dollars
- 2025Gold at the Mathematical Olympiad
- 2025America's AI Action Plan
- 2025GPT-5
- 2025Gemini 3
- 2025MCP is donated to the Agentic AI Foundation
- 2026Claude Fable 5 and the Mythos class
- 2026GPT-5.6: Sol, Terra and Luna
- 2026A model escapes its sandbox
- 2026The EU delays its high-risk AI rules
- 2026Claude Fable 5.1
- 2026GPT-6 Astra