· turning point
Perceptrons
Minsky and Papert prove that a single-layer perceptron cannot learn XOR or connectedness; the book is read as a verdict on neural networks and the money leaves.
what had to happen · 3 events back to 1943
Every event this one built on, transitively, in order. Direct influences are marked.
00 · One neuron · 1
I · Foundations · 2
Marvin Minsky and Seymour Papert's Perceptrons is a careful piece of mathematics with a devastating reputation. The book proves what a single layer of Rosenblatt's units can and cannot represent. It cannot compute exclusive-or, the function that is true when exactly one of two inputs is on, because no straight line separates the cases. It cannot tell whether a figure is connected without looking at the whole image at once. These limits are real, and Rosenblatt knew them.
The damage came from the framing. The authors suggested that multi-layer networks, which can represent XOR, would probably be no better, because nobody knew how to train them. That guess was wrong, and the answer, backpropagation, was already in Seppo Linnainmaa's 1970 thesis and Paul Werbos's 1974 one. But funding agencies read the book as a proof that the whole approach was a dead end, and for fifteen years it largely was, in the sense that almost nobody was paid to work on it.
Rosenblatt died in a boating accident in 1971. Minsky and Papert dedicated the 1988 edition to him. The XOR problem became the standard first exercise for every student of neural networks, because a two-layer net solves it in seconds, and the lesson it teaches is about what a proof of limits does and does not show.
what it led to · 99 events downstream, through 2026
Built on it directly:
- 1973The Lighthill reportW1
- 1986BackpropagationII
- 1989The universal approximation theoremW2
And, through them, by era:
II · Connection · 3
W2 · The second winter · 5
III · Statistics and data · 9
IV · Deep learning · 18
- 2012Google Brain's network discovers cats
- 2012Dropout
- 2012AlexNet wins ImageNet
- 2013Word2vec
- 2013Deep Q-networks play Atari
- 2014Google buys DeepMind
- 2014Generative adversarial networks
- 2014Attention
- 2014Sequence to sequence learning
- 2014Adam
- 2015Batch normalisation
- 2015TensorFlow is open-sourced
- 2015Residual networks
- 2015OpenAI is founded
- 2016AlphaGo beats Lee Sedol
- 2016Google reveals the TPU
- 2016WaveNet
- 2016Google Translate goes neural
V · Transformers · 18
- 2017Attention is all you need
- 2017Deep reinforcement learning from human preferences
- 2017AlphaGo Zero learns from nothing
- 2018GPT: generative pre-training
- 2018BERT
- 2018AlphaFold enters the protein-folding contest
- 2019GPT-2 and the model too dangerous to release
- 2019The bitter lesson
- 2019The Turing Award goes to deep learning
- 2020Scaling laws for neural language models
- 2020GPT-3
- 2020Learning to summarise from human feedback
- 2020An image is worth 16×16 words
- 2020AlphaFold 2 solves protein structure prediction
- 2021CLIP and DALL·E
- 2021On the dangers of stochastic parrots
- 2021Anthropic is founded
- 2021GitHub Copilot writes code
VI · Everyone · 29
- 2022InstructGPT
- 2022Chain-of-thought prompting
- 2022Chinchilla: the models were undertrained
- 2022PaLM
- 2022DALL·E 2
- 2022Midjourney opens its beta
- 2022Stable Diffusion is released
- 2022Galactica lasts three days
- 2022ChatGPT
- 2023Bing's chatbot and 'Sydney'
- 2023LLaMA leaks and open weights take off
- 2023Claude
- 2023GPT-4
- 2023'Pause Giant AI Experiments'
- 2023Hinton leaves Google to warn about AI
- 2023The US executive order on AI
- 2023The Bletchley Declaration
- 2023OpenAI fires and rehires its chief executive
- 2023Gemini
- 2024Sora
- 2024Claude 3 catches GPT-4
- 2024AlphaFold 3
- 2024GPT-4o talks
- 2024The EU AI Act enters into force
- 2024o1 and reasoning models
- 2024The Nobel Prizes go to neural networks
- 2024Claude learns to use a computer
- 2024The Model Context Protocol
- 2024DeepSeek-V3 trained for $5.6 million
VII · Agents · 14
- 2025DeepSeek-R1
- 2025Claude 4 and Claude Code
- 2025Nvidia is worth four trillion dollars
- 2025Gold at the Mathematical Olympiad
- 2025America's AI Action Plan
- 2025GPT-5
- 2025Gemini 3
- 2025MCP is donated to the Agentic AI Foundation
- 2026Claude Fable 5 and the Mythos class
- 2026GPT-5.6: Sol, Terra and Luna
- 2026A model escapes its sandbox
- 2026The EU delays its high-risk AI rules
- 2026Claude Fable 5.1
- 2026GPT-6 Astra