· turning point
GPT-3
A 175-billion-parameter model learns new tasks from a few examples in its prompt, with no fine-tuning; the era of prompting, and of models as a product, begins.
what had to happen · 35 events back to 1943
Every event this one built on, transitively, in order. Direct influences are marked.
00 · One neuron · 1
I · Foundations · 6
W1 · The first winter · 2
II · Connection · 3
W2 · The second winter · 3
III · Statistics and data · 9
IV · Deep learning · 7
V · Transformers · 4
GPT-3 was the scaling laws carried out. Posted on 28 May 2020, it had 175 billion parameters, a hundred times GPT-2, and was trained on about 300 billion tokens of filtered web text, books and Wikipedia at a cost estimated at several million dollars. Its size was the headline. The finding that mattered was in the title: it learned tasks from a few examples written into the prompt. Show it three English-to-French pairs and it translated the fourth; show it a format and it filled it in. Nothing in the model changed. The abilities were already inside it, and the prompt selected them.
In-context learning was the surprise the scaling laws had not predicted, and it changed how models were used. Instead of collecting a dataset and fine-tuning, one wrote instructions in English. The paper also reported that people could not reliably tell its news articles from human ones, and devoted a section to the risks.
OpenAI did not release the weights. It sold access through an API from June 2020, the first time a frontier model was a product, and licensed the model exclusively to Microsoft that September. The company founded to keep AI open had become the company that kept its models closed, and it had built the thing that, refined for two years, would be ChatGPT.
what it led to · 43 events downstream, through 2026
Built on it directly:
- 2021CLIP and DALL·EV
- 2021On the dangers of stochastic parrotsV
- 2021GitHub Copilot writes codeV
- 2022InstructGPTVI
- 2022Chain-of-thought promptingVI
- 2022PaLMVI
- 2022Galactica lasts three daysVI
- 2022ChatGPTVI
- 2023LLaMA leaks and open weights take offVI
And, through them, by era:
VI · Everyone · 20
- 2022DALL·E 2
- 2022Midjourney opens its beta
- 2022Stable Diffusion is released
- 2023Bing's chatbot and 'Sydney'
- 2023Claude
- 2023GPT-4
- 2023'Pause Giant AI Experiments'
- 2023Hinton leaves Google to warn about AI
- 2023The US executive order on AI
- 2023The Bletchley Declaration
- 2023OpenAI fires and rehires its chief executive
- 2023Gemini
- 2024Sora
- 2024Claude 3 catches GPT-4
- 2024GPT-4o talks
- 2024The EU AI Act enters into force
- 2024o1 and reasoning models
- 2024Claude learns to use a computer
- 2024The Model Context Protocol
- 2024DeepSeek-V3 trained for $5.6 million
VII · Agents · 14
- 2025DeepSeek-R1
- 2025Claude 4 and Claude Code
- 2025Nvidia is worth four trillion dollars
- 2025Gold at the Mathematical Olympiad
- 2025America's AI Action Plan
- 2025GPT-5
- 2025Gemini 3
- 2025MCP is donated to the Agentic AI Foundation
- 2026Claude Fable 5 and the Mythos class
- 2026GPT-5.6: Sol, Terra and Luna
- 2026A model escapes its sandbox
- 2026The EU delays its high-risk AI rules
- 2026Claude Fable 5.1
- 2026GPT-6 Astra