Dropout
Hinton's group randomly switches off half the units during each training step, so no unit can rely on another; overfitting drops sharply and AlexNet adopts it.
what had to happen · 11 events back to 1943
Every event this one built on, transitively, in order. Direct influences are marked.
00 · One neuron · 1
I · Foundations · 5
W1 · The first winter · 1
II · Connection · 3
III · Statistics and data · 1
- 2006Deep belief networks and the word 'deep'direct
A large network with more parameters than examples will memorise its training data and fail on anything new. The classical remedies penalised large weights or stopped training early. Geoffrey Hinton's proposal, posted to arXiv on 3 July 2012, was stranger: on every training example, delete half the hidden units at random, train the network that remains, and at test time use the full network with the weights halved. Units that could not count on their neighbours being present had to learn features that were useful on their own.
Hinton has said the idea came from thinking about sexual reproduction, which breaks up co-adapted sets of genes, and from a bank teller who kept being rotated to prevent fraud. Whatever its origin, it worked. Error rates fell on every benchmark tried, and the approximate explanation, that training with dropout is like averaging an exponential number of thinned networks, gave it respectability.
AlexNet, trained by two of the paper's authors that autumn, used dropout in its fully connected layers and would have overfit badly without it. The method became standard for a decade. The transformers of the 2020s, trained on data too large to memorise, mostly dropped it again.
what it led to · 70 events downstream, through 2026
Built on it directly:
- 2012AlexNet wins ImageNetIV
And, through them, by era:
IV · Deep learning · 9
V · Transformers · 17
- 2017Attention is all you need
- 2017Deep reinforcement learning from human preferences
- 2017AlphaGo Zero learns from nothing
- 2018GPT: generative pre-training
- 2018BERT
- 2018AlphaFold enters the protein-folding contest
- 2019GPT-2 and the model too dangerous to release
- 2019The bitter lesson
- 2020Scaling laws for neural language models
- 2020GPT-3
- 2020Learning to summarise from human feedback
- 2020An image is worth 16×16 words
- 2020AlphaFold 2 solves protein structure prediction
- 2021CLIP and DALL·E
- 2021On the dangers of stochastic parrots
- 2021Anthropic is founded
- 2021GitHub Copilot writes code
VI · Everyone · 29
- 2022InstructGPT
- 2022Chain-of-thought prompting
- 2022Chinchilla: the models were undertrained
- 2022PaLM
- 2022DALL·E 2
- 2022Midjourney opens its beta
- 2022Stable Diffusion is released
- 2022Galactica lasts three days
- 2022ChatGPT
- 2023Bing's chatbot and 'Sydney'
- 2023LLaMA leaks and open weights take off
- 2023Claude
- 2023GPT-4
- 2023'Pause Giant AI Experiments'
- 2023Hinton leaves Google to warn about AI
- 2023The US executive order on AI
- 2023The Bletchley Declaration
- 2023OpenAI fires and rehires its chief executive
- 2023Gemini
- 2024Sora
- 2024Claude 3 catches GPT-4
- 2024AlphaFold 3
- 2024GPT-4o talks
- 2024The EU AI Act enters into force
- 2024o1 and reasoning models
- 2024The Nobel Prizes go to neural networks
- 2024Claude learns to use a computer
- 2024The Model Context Protocol
- 2024DeepSeek-V3 trained for $5.6 million
VII · Agents · 14
- 2025DeepSeek-R1
- 2025Claude 4 and Claude Code
- 2025Nvidia is worth four trillion dollars
- 2025Gold at the Mathematical Olympiad
- 2025America's AI Action Plan
- 2025GPT-5
- 2025Gemini 3
- 2025MCP is donated to the Agentic AI Foundation
- 2026Claude Fable 5 and the Mythos class
- 2026GPT-5.6: Sol, Terra and Luna
- 2026A model escapes its sandbox
- 2026The EU delays its high-risk AI rules
- 2026Claude Fable 5.1
- 2026GPT-6 Astra